Preparing for 2025 Peak Shipping Season (and Every Seasonal Surge Beyond It)

Every shipper knows the pressure peak season brings. In an effort to get your goods on the shelves and into the homes of your customers, you face higher volumes, tighter capacity, unpredictable rates, and now, mounting surcharges. But what’s different in 2025 is that the pressure points don’t just show up in the fall, they’re scattered throughout the year, influenced by tariffs, consumer buying shifts, and retailer inventory strategies. What used to be a straightforward push to market towards the end of the year turns into a shipping struggle for shippers, carriers, and customers. 

If you’re in trucking or rely on trucking to move your freight, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. LTL, FTL, and consolidation strategies can help you move smarter, but only if you plan early, diversify your playbook, and build resilience into your freight strategy. Most importantly, a carrier partner you can trust is critical for helping you navigate an evolving shipping environment. 

What’s Changed: Peak Season No Longer Belongs to Q4

In the past, you could count on peak season falling squarely between July and October, fueled by back-to-school, Black Friday, and holiday surges. But according to PLS Logistics, the reality is more complicated, timing now shifts year to year based on global events, tariffs, and changing consumer behavior. This means the old strategy of “tighten up in midsummer and hope for the best” no longer works.

To make things harder, UPS announced that peak surcharges for 2025 would start on September 28 and run all the way through January 11, 2026. That’s more than three months of added costs layered onto already expensive freight. And it’s not limited to small parcel. Larger, bulky shipments and volume shippers face the steepest penalties, making it harder for companies to budget accurately or protect margins.

UPS initially introduced its “Peak Season” surcharges in 2020, in response to pandemic-driven volume surges. Since then, these have evolved into what’s now known as Demand Surcharges, extended beyond just the traditional holiday window when necessary. While this isn’t an unprecedented move by the UPS, it is a longer, higher surcharge on a greater number of shipments. Oversized, high-volume shippers who typically would rely on the UPS to carry their freight are at even greater risk of increased costs. If this applies to you, now is the time to explore other shipping options for your holiday needs and beyond.

Don’t treat peak as a single event. Treat it as an evolving season that can start earlier than expected and extend well into the new year. The companies that win are the ones forecasting in winter and spring, not scrambling in July.

How to Avoid Surcharges

Surcharges are now part of peak season reality. For 2025, UPS rolled out fees ranging from $8.25 for additional handling to more than $500 for oversize packages. For high-volume shippers, that’s a margin killer. And while parcel is most visible, the principle is the same in trucking, general rate increases (GRIs), congestion fees, and fuel surcharges are facts of life during peak.

So, can you avoid them? Not entirely. But you can reduce the sting:

• Negotiate early. Carriers may be willing to lock in lower fees if you secure space before demand peaks.
  
  
• Diversify providers. Relying on a single carrier gives you zero leverage when surcharges hit.
  
  
• Smooth out volumes. Don’t dump all freight in the heaviest weeks; distribute demand to reduce penalty exposure.
  
  
• Build buffers. Budget 10–15% over contracted rates to absorb peak charges without blowing up your P&L.
  
  

How to Use LTL, FTL, and Consolidation to Support Your Peak Season Shipping

While ocean and air dominate headlines, trucking is still the backbone of supply chains. Choosing the right trucking mode is critical, especially during capacity crunches.

• LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) works best when you are replenishing shelves with smaller, mixed shipments throughout the season. Retailers do not just stock up once for the holidays. They place frequent orders to keep up with unpredictable consumer demand. LTL allows you to move those smaller, steady volumes cost effectively, though you will need to plan around slightly longer transit times and more handling. 
• FTL (Full Truckload) is the go-to during holiday crunch periods when speed and reliability are non-negotiable. If you are moving high-margin or must-arrive SKUs such as electronics, toys, or seasonal promotions, dedicated equipment reduces the risk of delays and damage. During peak, missing a delivery window by even a day can mean lost sales. 
• Retail consolidation is especially powerful in the holiday season when retailers demand strict delivery appointments at their distribution centers. Instead of paying premium rates for partial loads or risking refused deliveries, multiple suppliers can combine shipments into a single truck. This ensures freight arrives on time, in compliance with retailer requirements, and at a lower cost per unit shipped. With our retail consolidation through National Consolidation Services, we have decades of experience delivering on-time and in-full to the nation’s largest retailers. Our on-time percentage in the 90s and long-standing relationships means you can trust us with your freight, even during crunch time.
  
  

For a deeper dive, check out our guide: Choosing the Right Freight Option: LTL, FTL, or Retail Consolidation.

The takeaway: Match freight type to freight mode. Don’t throw everything onto FTL or LTL because “that’s what you’ve always done.” Mode optimization is the single best way to control costs and avoid missed deliveries in peak.

Spot vs. Contract: Don’t Bet Your Business on the Spot Market Without Careful Consideration

Spot rates are tempting, especially when the market cools. But as DAT notes, they’re unpredictable and can spike 30% or more in days during disruptions. Relying entirely on spot is like playing the stock market with your supply chain, it may work sometimes, but it’s high-risk.

Contract rates, on the other hand, provide stability, stronger carrier relationships, and priority in crunch times. Contract freight smooths costs over time, making budgeting easier and helping you avoid desperate, last-minute premium payments.

The key is to plan contracts with peak season in mind. Instead of locking in the same year-round volume commitments, build flexibility into your agreements that accounts for higher Q4 freight demand. This might mean securing core lanes under contract with carriers you trust, while including seasonal surge capacity in the agreement. By negotiating terms that anticipate holiday shipping volumes, you protect your most important freight while still keeping room to use the spot market when needed.

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Operational Moves that Separate Successful Shippers from the Pack

Even if you plan well, execution makes or breaks peak season. Some practical ways to keep freight flowing:

• Prioritize SKUs. Move high-margin or best-selling products on FTL or expedited LTL. Let lower-margin or non-essential SKUs ride deferred services.
  
  
• Book inspections. Inbound factories under pressure often cut corners—schedule pre-shipment checks to avoid delays or rejections.
  
  
• Pre-position inventory. Place goods in regional warehouses or near port-city hubs. This makes last-mile delivery faster and reduces exposure to long-haul disruptions.
  
  
• Mix fulfillment. Don’t rely solely on your own DC. Blend your footprint with 3PL partners for scalability.
  

Execution is where most companies fail. Think inventory placement, shipment prioritization, and proactive quality control as much as rate negotiation.

This is where UC Group becomes the partner you need. Our retail consolidation expertise keeps your freight moving into major distribution centers without missed appointments. Our LTL and truckload solutions ensure that both high-margin, time-sensitive freight and everyday replenishment orders arrive on time. With experienced drivers, trusted carrier partners, and a nationwide network, we help you avoid the common pitfalls that derail peak season performance.

Don’t Just Plan for Holidays, Think Year-Round Surges

One of the biggest mistakes shippers make is planning only for holiday peak. Seasonality hits multiple times a year, back-to-school, summer holidays, promotional surges, or tariff deadlines can all create their own “peaks.” Keep in mind that reverse logistics (returns) now stretch well into Q1, creating another freight crunch.

For trucking specifically, this means your contract planning, carrier relationships, and mode choices need to account for more than just the holiday rush. LTL works well for replenishing stores during back-to-school and for handling post-holiday returns. FTL is critical for promotional pushes when you need to move entire truckloads of seasonal products at once. Consolidation can help you hit strict retail appointment times during promotional events, avoiding costly chargebacks.

How UC Group Handles Your Peak Shipping Needs

The truth is, there is no magic trick to eliminating peak stress. Rates will rise, capacity will tighten, and surcharges will show up. The difference between struggling and succeeding is whether you have the right partner to guide you through it.

UC Group brings together specialized trucking and logistics solutions that are built for peak season. From retail consolidation that gets your freight into big-box distribution centers without missed appointments, to flexible LTL and FTL capacity that adapts to your changing volumes, we give you options and control when it matters most. Our teams forecast demand with you, help secure contracts that account for seasonal surges, and build contingency plans that keep your freight moving even when disruption hits.

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